Market Update – Q3 2023 | 06 November 2023

by Angus Dixon

The summer months proved seasonal once again, with London families holidaying abroad and a slower pace descending over the market. September and October showed a good uptick in activity but there is most certainly still hesitancy out there from both buyers and sellers.

The third quarter of 2023 saw the market trends from the early part of the year continue. For the prime London sales market that meant weak demand feeding into falls in both values and transaction levels. Prime and Super Prime markets have remained resilient, with less reliance on finance from incoming purchasers. There is sensitivity around asking prices and vendors have become more realistic, without underselling and buyers coming in with heightened expectations on discounts may prove to bed is appointed. As Knight Frank states, the expected decline in the average price of a property in PCL this year is around 3% and in Outer prime, around 4%. Other mainstream markets will vary and will be higher.

It is sales activity that continues to be harder hit than values according to LonRes data. Transaction volumes have fallen significantly compared to the stronger sales market seen in2021 and 2022 but remain in line or even slightly ahead of where they were pre-pandemic. Despite ongoing economic uncertainty, further price falls are likely to be limited by the level of equity in the market and the low growth seen over the past decade. The market for homes at £5m and above has also seen falls in activity from recent highs.

It is interesting to note that current transaction levels are not that different to those seen pre-pandemic. In fact, they are 5.7% up on the 2017 to 2019 third quarter average on Lonres data. Therefore, the opinion of activity is likely to be concluded on which period you would consider to be ‘normal.’

The recent slowdown in sales does now appear to be impacting achieved prices. Values across prime London fell by 2.2% in Q3according to the LonRes Sales Index. It is likely that prices will continue to ebb and flow and transaction levels remaining low, until there is further certainty around the cost of financing remaining stable for an extended period, or potentially reducing.

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